Seven of 16 planetary vital signs hit record extremes as climate change accelerates, study finds
A BioScience assessment led by Oregon State University researcher Bill Ripple finds that seven of 16 planetary vital signs have reached their most extreme levels on record. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is now 50 percent above preindustrial levels, largely because of fossil-fuel use, while Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have fallen to record lows and ocean heat has climbed to a record high. The rate of warming has accelerated from about 0.05 degrees Celsius per decade between 1880 and 1970 to 0.36 degrees per decade since 2010.
A strengthening El Niño could temporarily drive global temperatures still higher by transferring additional heat from the unusually warm Pacific into the atmosphere. Because the natural cycle is unfolding on an already warmer planet, it may intensify heat and drought in vulnerable regions. Exceptionally warm seas raise the risk of widespread coral bleaching, further weakening reefs; beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming, most of the world’s coral is considered unlikely to survive.
The Amazon is also exposed, as El Niño tends to bring drier conditions while logging, mining and land clearing are already putting the forest under pressure. The report says a near-term shift from rainforest toward savanna is highly unlikely, but the interaction of warming, drought and deforestation could move the ecosystem closer to that tipping point. Renewable energy is expanding and taking a larger role in electricity generation, yet annual greenhouse-gas emissions remain at record highs, leaving the planet’s overall condition serious and worsening.
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