Brazilian stocks jump as Bolsonaro seen as favorite to win presidency
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Brazilian assets surged on Monday following the first round of the presidential election on Sunday, which advanced incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro to an October 25 run-off. Bolsonaro secured more than 47% of the votes, beating Lula's first round total by nearly 2 percentage points. Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket now give Bolsonaro an 80% to 85% chance of winning the presidency. Financial markets reacted strongly, with the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF jumping more than 12%, Itau Unibanco shares gaining 15%, and Banco Bradesco surging 19%.
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