Brent crude falls below $90 for first time since August on Iran war de-escalation hopes
Brent crude fell below $90 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since August, as remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump raised hopes that Washington’s nearly nine-month conflict with Iran could ease. The international benchmark, used for about 80% of global crude, was 2.65% lower at $90.14 at 5:33 a.m. ET after January contracts dipped below $90 earlier. U.S. WTI crude was down 2.4% at $84.78.
Trump said Monday, after meeting Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, that momentum was building toward an end to the fighting, Tehran was “talking very politely,” and “Iran militarily is effectively over.” In a Truth Social post he said Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait would prefer the status quo: a naval blockade of Iran and blocking ground routes used to move advanced weapons.
Oil has been highly sensitive to the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran. Brent began the year near $60, surged as high as $130 as strikes intensified in March and April, eased in June and July, then climbed again as the conflict looked entrenched. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz have largely recovered, but diesel, gasoline and jet fuel have soared amid thin refining capacity, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the Russia-Ukraine war. Trump and Vice President JD Vance have said public anger over the Iran war and high energy prices contributed to Republicans’ heavy midterm losses. The U.S. had largely paused strikes since September—Trump said in early October they would wait until after the midterms—then carried out what he called “minor strikes” after two missiles hit Qeshm Island near Hormuz.
ING strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson said markets were unwinding some geopolitical risk premium as Gulf barrels return and reports suggest Iran may be softening on Hormuz control, though prices should stay sensitive to Middle East news. Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman of consultancy FGE, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” he still sees no peace deal: the gap is too wide, Washington wants enriched nuclear material removed from Iran, and Tehran will not restore free oil flow through Hormuz as before the war.
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