Strongest El Niño in a millennium adds urgency to Cop31 climate talks in Turkey
UN climate talks at Cop31 in Turkey have gained extra urgency from what officials describe as the strongest El Niño in at least 1,000 years. The naturally recurring warming of the eastern Pacific is already amplifying weather warped by climate change: huge wildfires and crop failures in Indonesia, coastal inundation in the United States, severe drought in Sudan, and severe flooding in Ecuador and Somalia. Celeste Saulo, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, said countries are “supercharging our weather” and that El Niño will be a “risk multiplier.”
The Marshall Islands has declared a state of emergency after drought hit a country that relies heavily on rainfall. Climate envoy Kathy Jetn̄il-Kijiner called it a compounding crisis on top of rising seas that threaten homes and drinking water, and said wealthy countries lag on adaptation and loss-and-damage finance even after last year’s pledge to triple adaptation funding for poorer nations. Only a fraction of the $305bn a year needed by 2035 is being delivered.
El Niño is expected to peak in December and then reverberate through next year, which is almost certain to be the hottest on record. Scientists warn of heatwaves, crop shortages, extreme rainfall or drought, coral bleaching, and more humanitarian disasters. UNHCR assistant high commissioner Antón Leis García said the forecast is the worst ever; the agency predicts as many as 3 million displacements across Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan and Uganda. Kenya’s maize production is already down 40%, leaving less food for refugees. Mohamed Adow of Power Shift Africa said people cannot wait for another round of diplomatic promises.
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