Where control of Congress will be decided in the US midterm elections
US voters will choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 senators on 3 November, in elections that could sharply constrain Donald Trump’s final two years in office. Republicans hold the narrowest possible House majority, with 218 seats plus an aligned independent, while their Senate advantage is 53 seats to 45 Democrats and two independents who vote with them.
The Cook Political Report identifies 21 House toss-ups, 15 held by Republicans. Democrats need five of those alongside 28 seats rated likely or leaning their way to take the chamber. The Senate is harder: seven races are toss-ups, six involving Republican-held seats, and Democrats need four of them in addition to four favourable races to reach 51. They must defend a tight Michigan contest between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers while pursuing gains in Alaska, Iowa and Ohio, which Trump won by double digits in 2024. In Texas, James Talarico is challenging Ken Paxton in an attempt to secure the state’s first Democratic Senate victory since 1988.
Trump’s approval rating has fallen from just above 50% at the start of his second term to about 37%. Living costs remain central: petrol rose from below $2.30 a gallon in most states to $4 after the war with Iran disrupted energy supplies, and an August poll found 63% disapproved of Trump’s handling of the conflict. Republicans nevertheless hold a major financial advantage, with more than $600m available through party and allied groups, almost $400m more in MAGA Inc, and heavier advertising spending than Democrats in nearly every competitive Senate race.
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