Study reveals unexpected ecological drivers of Lyme disease risk
A 35-year study from the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies has challenged long-standing assumptions about what drives Lyme disease risk in the United States. Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by lead author Richard Ostfeld and Shannon LaDeau, the research examined ecological interactions across a 2,000-acre forested site in Dutchess County, New York. Nearly 500,000 Americans are diagnosed each year with Lyme disease, caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi and transmitted primarily by nymphal blacklegged ticks.
Decades of data revealed no statistically significant link between white-tailed deer numbers and the abundance of nymphal ticks, contradicting the belief that deer abundance fuels human infection risk. Instead, white-footed mice were identified as the primary predictor. Because mice efficiently transmit Borrelia burgdorferi to feeding larval ticks, years with large mouse populations were followed by roughly 40 percent more nymphal ticks the next year.
The researchers also discovered that oak acorn masting—synchronized years of bumper acorn production—provides abundant food for rodents and reliably predicts tick surges two years in advance. These ecological patterns offer public health officials actionable early warnings to anticipate elevated infection risks.
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