What to expect as Russia, Ukraine and the US hold trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi
Negotiators from Ukraine, Russia and the United States are due to meet on Tuesday in Abu Dhabi for a two-day round of talks aimed at ending nearly five years of full-scale war after Moscow’s invasion. It is the first such trilateral session since February. Security guarantees for both sides top the agenda, and US officials say any peace deal must also include a broader security architecture for Europe. Earlier negotiations this year produced no visible progress toward ending what the report calls Europe’s most devastating conflict since World War II.
Last month a week-long localised truce around the Russian-occupied southern city of Oleshky, brokered with help from US First Lady Melania Trump, allowed some residents to evacuate and humanitarian supplies to get through. Fighting has nonetheless continued along the roughly 1,200-kilometre (750-mile) front, and both sides have stepped up long-range drone and missile strikes. Russia has intensified attacks on Ukraine’s power system as winter approaches, using ballistic missiles and faster jet-powered drones while Ukraine faces a shortage of US-made Patriot interceptors.
The sides remain far apart. President Vladimir Putin wants Ukrainian forces withdrawn from four regions Russia illegally annexed in September 2022 but never fully captured, an end to Ukraine’s NATO bid, strict limits on its military, and the lifting of restrictions on the Russian language and the Moscow-affiliated Orthodox Church. He seeks a comprehensive deal on those terms and rejects a general ceasefire, arguing it would let Ukrainian troops rest and restock. President Volodymyr Zelensky refuses to cede territory Russia has not taken and to accept limits on the army and Western security arrangements. Kyiv wants an immediate ceasefire first and says only a Putin–Zelensky meeting can settle territorial questions. Zelensky has compared desired guarantees to NATO’s Article 5 and, in a 5 November interview, asked what allies would do, with what means and when, if Russia invaded again. Some European countries have considered deploying troops after a deal; Moscow calls that a non-starter and would treat such forces as legitimate targets. The Kremlin also wants security guarantees for Russia, having previously demanded a rollback of NATO deployments in Central and Eastern Europe.
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