Iran war energy shock expected to nudge global emissions down in 2026, study finds
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A Global Carbon Project study expects global carbon emissions to fall about 0.4% in 2026 after roughly 0.9% annual growth over the past decade, chiefly because US war on Iran pushed energy prices and disrupted Strait of Hormuz supply—not because of climate policy. Oil emissions drop 1.9%, natural gas 0.3%, coal rises 0.6%. Co-author Glen Peters of Norway’s CICERO Center warned a one-year decline is not a peak without structural change; the report came as COP31 meets in Turkey.
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