El Niño reaches unprecedented levels weeks before its expected peak
El Niño has intensified to levels some scientists describe as unprecedented, several weeks before its expected peak in December. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology says average weekly sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific are the highest on record, while daily temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific surpassed the previous 2015 high in September. Parts of the tropical Pacific have exceeded 30°C for the first time, alongside exceptional subsurface warmth and record temperature anomalies.
Because human-caused ocean warming can obscure the strength of the natural cycle, Australian and US forecasters are using the Relative Ocean El Niño Index to make historical comparisons. On that measure, the latest weekly reading—available only since 2008—has exceeded the level recorded in December 2015. Warmth has also spread beyond the usual monitoring zone, across much of the Pacific and into the Gulf of Mexico.
El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts about a year. The World Meteorological Organization says there is no evidence yet that climate change is making such events stronger or more frequent, but El Niño does release additional ocean heat into the atmosphere. Combined with long-term warming, it is expected to help make 2026 one of the warmest years recorded, with unusually high temperatures continuing into 2027. Drought, floods and food-security concerns are already emerging in East Africa and the Asia-Pacific, although local impacts cannot be inferred from El Niño’s strength alone.
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