Cancer rates rising faster in younger adults in England, and obesity alone does not explain it
An analysis of England’s National Disease Registry Service records from 2001 to 2019 found broad increases in cancer incidence, with significant rises in 16 of 22 cancer types studied among women aged 20–49 and 11 of 21 among men of the same age. Bowel and ovarian cancer were notable because rates increased in younger adults but not in people aged 50 and over. Endometrial, kidney, pancreatic, thyroid and multiple myeloma rates also rose faster among younger women; in men, only multiple myeloma showed a significantly faster increase below 50.
Researchers compared these trends with national survey data on smoking, alcohol, diet, physical activity and body weight. Ten of 11 cancers highlighted in the analysis were associated with excess weight, which accounted for an estimated 5% of ovarian cancer cases and 37% of endometrial cancer cases in 2019. Yet both weight-related and non-weight-related incidence increased. Other established risks were generally stable or improving: among younger men, daily red-meat consumption fell from 38 grams in 2008 to 17 grams in 2018, and among younger women from 22 to 10 grams. More than 90% of younger adults still consumed insufficient fibre.
Because the observational study cannot establish causes, the findings leave a substantial part of the rise unexplained. Possible contributors include early-life or prenatal exposures, reproductive history, the gut microbiome, antibiotics, ultra-processed foods, air pollution, and changes in screening or diagnosis. The authors caution that some long-term risk data were unavailable, the analysis covered England only, and its estimates assumed a 10-year delay between exposure and cancer development.
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