Paris Agreement’s 1.5-Degree Goal Is Effectively Dead
The Paris Agreement’s central climate ambition is now effectively out of reach. At COP31 in Antalya, Turkey, diplomats acknowledged that holding global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels is no longer achievable, just 11 years after nearly every country pledged to pursue that goal. Chris Bowen, Australia’s minister for climate change and energy and a lead negotiator at the summit, said the world had “no chance” of staying within the limit.
Scientists warn that, without drastic reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions, global temperatures are very likely to rise by at least 2.6 degrees Celsius, or 4.7 degrees Fahrenheit, by the end of the century. The difference from the 1.5-degree target would mean a substantially more dangerous climate: more frequent and intense extreme heat, stronger and more destructive storms, rising seas and heavier losses for poorer countries with fewer resources to adapt.
The consequences are already visible. In recent months, wildfires have spread from Canada to Indonesia, floods and mudslides have devastated parts of Brazil, and a glacier collapse in Nepal killed thousands and destroyed towns. A European heat wave was estimated to have caused 50,000 deaths. The failure to preserve 1.5 degrees therefore marks not only a diplomatic setback but recognition that dangerous climate impacts are already unfolding.
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