Trump’s shifting Ukraine diplomacy leaves peace prospects remote
Donald Trump’s unilateral declaration of an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine had no apparent agreement behind it. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the proposal was news to him but accepted it, while Russian attacks on Ukrainian power infrastructure continued. The episode typifies a diplomatic process marked by abrupt policy shifts, even as Ukraine says it would accept an unconditional ceasefire and Russia insists on a final settlement that would leave Ukraine severely weakened.
Former British ambassador Nigel Gould-Davies argues that genuine negotiations remain impossible because Moscow still believes continued fighting better serves its interests. In his view, recent talks have largely become competing attempts by Kyiv and Moscow to convince the White House that the other side is obstructing peace. Trump has sometimes acted against Russia, including through oil sanctions, but his broader approach has involved restricting support for Ukraine and pressing it to make concessions.
European governments are therefore concentrating diplomatic effort on influencing Washington as well as confronting Moscow. Concern has intensified over Trump’s proposed imports of Russian diesel and speculation that he could seek Russian help to ease Iran’s blockade of the strait of Hormuz, potentially in exchange for sanctions relief or reduced US support for Ukraine. Back-channel contacts continue, but Gould-Davies warns they may sustain a false impression that peace is close when Russia has shown no willingness to compromise.
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