Scientists Warn 1.5°C Warming Threshold Could Be Crossed by 2029
Two new reports presented at the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Turkey, underline how sharply climate action has fallen short of what is needed. Climate Action Tracker says current policies still point to nearly 5°F of global warming by 2100, a level that would devastate coral reefs, disrupt agriculture and forests, and melt most of the world’s ice. Even full implementation of existing promises would produce about 3.4°F of warming, which scientists consider extremely dangerous.
Copernicus, the European Union’s climate service, also found that warming has accelerated significantly since the 2015 Paris Agreement. The threshold of 2.7°F above preindustrial temperatures, once projected to be crossed around 2045, could now be reached as soon as 2029. The service said rising greenhouse-gas concentrations from human activity remain the main driver, despite uncertainty over every aspect of the recent temperature surge.
Climate Analytics analyst Sarah Heck said collective government action has stalled for a fifth consecutive year. Renewable energy is expanding, but new oil and gas projects and weakened or delayed policies continue to offset that progress. Researcher Niklas Höhne compared the approach to turning up a stove after discovering food is burning. Greta Thunberg said floods, wildfires and glacier collapses already show the deadly consequences, while Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare warned that continued fossil-fuel support could cause irreversible losses and severe economic damage.
Continue in the app — vote & join in ➔