Territorial disputes dim prospects for a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine
Renewed diplomatic efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine face a major obstacle over territory, particularly in the Donbas. Russia is demanding control of the entire region, including areas that remain in Ukrainian hands, while Ukraine refuses to surrender territory it still holds. That opposing position leaves little room for compromise and helps explain why a negotiated settlement remains unlikely despite renewed international attention.
Mark Galeotti, Executive Director of Mayak Intelligence and Honorary Professor at University College London’s School of Slavonic and East European Studies, argues that Moscow’s maximalist public position may conceal a more complex negotiating strategy. Even so, the territorial dispute remains exceptionally difficult to resolve. Talks are also complicated by competing ideas about the future of European security and by an increasingly unpredictable United States that is seen as more pro-Moscow. Together, these disagreements extend beyond the battlefield: they concern Ukraine’s borders, the security order across Europe and the balance of power shaping any possible peace agreement.
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