Average U.S. unemployment stretch tops 27 weeks in October outside pandemic era
The average stretch of unemployment in the United States topped 27 weeks in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Friday’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics — nearly seven months, and the longest outside the pandemic era since 2016, when the labor market was still recovering from the 2008 financial crisis. About two million people had been out of work for at least 27 weeks, a group known as the long-term unemployed, and they made up 27.6% of all jobless Americans, the highest share since late 2021.
Cory Stahle, senior economist at Indeed, said monthly readings can be noisy but that a longer view shows an unmistakable worsening trend. The backdrop is a “low-hire, low-fire” market: firms are reluctant both to cut staff and to add it. Research links long spells without work to depleted savings, weaker lifetime earnings and poorer mental health. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond researchers warned earlier this year that time out of a job can itself lower the chance of being hired, as skills fade, networks thin or employers treat long gaps as a negative signal. Most government unemployment benefits expire after 26 weeks in a year, which helps explain why initial and continuing jobless claims have stayed low even as job searches lengthen. Stahle called it a key point that the average unemployed person now takes longer to find work than benefits last.
Other October data looked stronger: nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000, beating forecasts, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. September job openings also surprised to the upside, quits jumped to levels last seen in March 2025, and layoffs and discharges fell to a more-than-year low. High-profile cuts still loom: Disney is planning to eliminate thousands of jobs, and American Express last month said it would cut head count by 5% as it reorients around artificial intelligence. Life360 lead economist Elizabeth Renter said personal circles full of layoffs and months-long searches can make upbeat labor-market narratives feel jarring.
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