Top AI experts badly underestimated how fast the field is moving, study finds

A Forecasting Research Institute interim report finds leading AI specialists and superforecasters lagged recent benchmarks. AI reached IMO gold-medal level in July 2025—five years before the median expert forecast and ten before superforecasters—and may have solved a Millennium Prize Problem; a 2025 survey put median odds of that by end-2027 at 10% for experts and 5.4% for superforecasters. Anthropic’s annualized revenue is about five times expert predictions, though forecasts for uses like self-driving cars are mixed.