Prediction market traders see nearly 75% chance of Democrats winning the Senate
Just one day before the midterm elections, traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi have given Democrats a 74% chance of securing control of the Senate. This marks the party's highest probability on the platform since the market opened in 2024. The contract, which asks who will control the chamber and will be verified by the Library of Congress after Tuesday's vote, moved sharply following New York Times and Siena University polling that showed Democratic candidates leading across key battleground states.
The surge caps a significant reversal. Republicans had dominated the 2026 Senate market for much of its run, though the margin narrowed after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28. While Republican odds climbed back to 60% in July, Democratic momentum resumed in mid-September.
Individual state races have seen similar dramatic movement over the past 24 hours. On Kalshi, Democratic odds in the Texas Senate race climbed from 68.4% to 74%. In Iowa, Democratic chances rose to 50% from 42% on Polymarket. In Kansas, which has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, Democratic contender Adam Hamilton saw his odds of defeating Republican Roger Marshall jump from 52% to 63%. Although these wagering platforms reflect shifting sentiment, their pricing relies on market trading rather than traditional polling methodology.
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