YouGov MRP poll puts Labour as largest party in hung parliament on 241 seats

A YouGov MRP model projects that if a UK election were held tomorrow, Labour would be the largest party in a hung parliament with 241 seats—a net loss of 170 from 2024 but up from 144 projected a year ago. Reform UK and the Conservatives are neck-and-neck on 123 and 130 seats; the Lib Dems on 71, the SNP 40, Plaid Cymru 15 and the Greens nine. In 37% of constituencies, margins are five points or less.