US-Iran war enters a “virtual ceasefire” with key disputes unresolved
Almost nine months into the US-Israel war with Iran, military activity has fallen sharply, prompting US President Donald Trump to say the conflict is “effectively over” in military terms. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says major combat operations are no longer necessary because economic pressure and negotiations are producing results. Iran, however, disputes that account: Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, says no negotiations are taking place and accuses the United States of using such claims to ease economic pressure and reduce oil prices.
Ian Kelly, a former US ambassador, describes the situation as a “virtual ceasefire”: the shooting has largely stopped, but the central disputes remain unresolved. The most immediate issue is the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Iran’s attacks on commercial vessels have pushed up oil prices and contributed to higher living costs internationally. Iran wants US strike forces withdrawn from the Gulf, while the United States wants the strait reopened and Iran to abandon its enriched uranium.
The conflict is also being shaped by US politics. After major Republican losses, Democrats are set to control both chambers of Congress next year, potentially restricting funding for the war. Kelly argues that Iran may be waiting to see whether Congress curtails US support, while Trump faces pressure to end a conflict that contradicts his promise to avoid “forever wars.” Yet trying to force a settlement on Hormuz or Iran’s nuclear programme could destroy the fragile calm and leave the White House with the choice of accepting an unresolved stalemate or resuming military action.
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