Analysts find looming launch crisis is more severe than anticipated
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Quilty Space estimates a shortfall of about 150 launches through 2030 outside China versus satellite operator and civil agency demand; US military needs without extending Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy could double the gap. Research director Caleb Henry said the crisis is worse than expected and may not ease until the late 2030s. Contributing factors include Ukraine removing Russian rockets from Western supply, Amazon Leo demand, delays to New Glenn, Vulcan, Neutron, Terran R and Nova, Falcon 9 leaving commercial service, and no sign Starship will launch traditional satellites.
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