COP31 Negotiations Turn to Fossil Fuels, Climate Finance and the 1.5C Limit
With nearly all of the more than 90 world leaders who attended COP31 in Antalya now gone, the summit is entering its substantive negotiating phase. Anthony Albanese and the UN secretary-general are among the few senior figures still due to leave, while negotiators work towards the first draft of the summit’s main decision, expected over the weekend or on Monday rather than immediately.
The draft is likely to address whether and how countries acknowledge a possible “overshoot” of the 1.5C temperature limit, as well as the role of climate science in future policy. Other central disputes will concern the transition away from fossil fuels, targets for electrification and the provision of climate finance. These issues are expected to define the next stage of talks after the leaders’ political discussions.
Attention is also turning to COP33, scheduled for 2028 and expected to be held in Asia under the UN climate convention’s regional rotation. China has ruled out hosting the summit, disappointing those who hoped the world’s biggest greenhouse-gas emitter and second-largest economy would take a leading role. China is undergoing a major shift from coal and oil towards renewable electricity, with clean and low-carbon industries now accounting for more than a tenth of its GDP.
India abandoned an early proposal months ago, leaving Uzbekistan, Thailand, Korea and Indonesia among the possible bidders. Countries are not expected to choose a host at COP31, as the remaining candidates need more time to develop their proposals.
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