Fossil fuel CO2 is projected to dip in 2026 while total emissions still rise
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The Global Carbon Project's 2026 Global Carbon Budget expects fossil fuel CO2 to fall 0.4% to 38.2 billion metric tons, with oil down 1.9% partly because of energy disruptions tied to the Iran conflict. Solar, wind, and electric vehicles are meeting roughly two-thirds of additional energy demand, yet total CO2 including land-use change is projected to reach 43.3 billion metric tons in 2026, up from 42.8 in 2025, as deforestation undermines cleaner-energy gains. Researchers warn the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C could be exhausted in less than four years.
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