Andy Burnham urges Labour to re-arm for a possible Kemi Badenoch-led Tory comeback
Andy Burnham has told Labour to “re-arm” for the next general election against the Conservatives, after Downing Street concluded that a recovery under Kemi Badenoch has to be taken seriously. Sources said the prime minister wants party headquarters to treat the Tories again as an electoral threat after more than two years of concentrating on Nigel Farage’s Reform and, on Labour’s left, the Greens. One official warned that support is volatile: the Conservatives may still trail, but their trajectory is up and they could rebound before polling day.
The Tories took 24% of the vote at the last election, then fell to 18%. Last week More in Common put them at 25% — the first time in 18 months they have exceeded their share at that record defeat. Some polls have even placed them ahead of Reform in second. Many Conservative MPs who had seen the party’s position as existential now think there is a path back, as Badenoch appears to treat the economy, rather than culture wars, as the opening with her core vote. A No 10 insider described her approach as a base strategy aimed at higher earners, mostly in the south: not enough to win the next election, but enough to put the party more in contention.
Burnham does not want officials to ignore Reform, whose poll numbers have slipped amid scrutiny of its finances, but he wants planning for a Tory resurgence as well. Ministers in Tory-facing seats include transport secretary Heidi Alexander, chief secretary Emma Reynolds and Europe minister Hamish Falconer; Labour MPs in Hertfordshire, Kent and parts of London, including Finchley and Harrow, could also be at risk. Tactics under discussion include highlighting a possible Conservative–Reform pact, in the hope that voters who fear Farage near power will stay with Labour, and attacking the Tory brand and shadow cabinet more broadly. Badenoch’s personal ratings are relatively strong, but a third of those who told More in Common she was doing a good job still said they would not vote Conservative.
Labour still treats the official opposition as a daily target, yet officials concede the wider strategy must intensify. More resources are expected from January ahead of the May elections, seen as a test of whether the Conservatives have recovered. London MPs and a minister with a slim majority have urged a shift away from what they called an obsession with Reform and the Greens. A former Keir Starmer staffer said every arm of the party had been rebuilt around fighting Reform and that work on a broader fight had to start properly now. Luke Tryl of More in Common said Starmer had fought on one front, while Labour now faces two on its right and must prepare for all outcomes.
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