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The government plans a 4.9% deficit for 2027, analysts expect 5–5.5%. What will the final deficit be?

The 2026 deficit target was raised to 7.5%. The 2027 plan promises a 2.6 percentage point improvement, 1.4 points of which come from election effects running out.

  • 4.9% or less – the plan is met
  • Between 5–5.5%, as analysts expect
  • Above 5.5% – a bigger slip
  • I can't judge